Published: Mid October Issue 2018
As I have mentioned in this space previously, the current environment is consistent with past environments where the market has declined to varying degrees. This is not to be construed as making a market direction call, merely an observation that the market has declined in a similar environment. What is analogous to previous market declines is a change in investor sentiment. Stated simply, when investors are feeling confident they have a decidedly “risk on” approach and buy with abandon. When confidence begins to falter investors become risk adverse and sell with equal abandon.
Published: First August Issue 2018
August, the dog days of summer. Heat, humidity, pennant races, back-to-school shopping, all fun stuff. August is also when a lot of the big boys are on vacation. I mean seriously, who wants to be in lower Manhattan in August? In the mid-80’s I left my cozy little investment boutique in La Jolla for the now defunct Dean Witter Reynolds. Even though I had been a producing broker for a few years, when you joined an NYSE firm you had to go to New York for four to five weeks “to be immersed in the culture.”
Published: Mid July Issue 2018
I write about values a lot, because nothing is more important to realizing a return on investment than understanding when good value is present. I also write about valuations in the broad market as well, because broad market valuations have a significant impact on returns, and losses, over longer periods of time, say 10 years or more. Conversely, broad market valuations have less significance over short periods of time, where investor sentiment is the more dominant driver of returns. Read more >
Published: First July Issue 2018
From the beginning of the 20th century to today, there are myriad identifiable paradigm shifts in the investment landscape. Typically, these shifts are recognized after the fact, in the rear-view mirror if you will.
After the Crash of ’29 there was a paradigm shift in how corporations disclosed information to the public and how markets and market makers were regulated.
Published: Mid June Issue 2018
here has been a lot of hand wringing about what the Fed is going to do with interest rates. Why this is beats me as since late 2008, the Federal Reserve has been fairly transparent about their intentions, transmitting information and guidance through all available media sources. As such, there really hasn’t been any need to speculate on the Fed’s next move. To bolster this point below is a brief synopsis of Fed announcements:
Published: First June Issue 2018
What I most appreciate about getting out on the road and in front of an audience is the opportunity to answer questions in real-time and provide greater color and detail to our approach and methods.By example, I often use the term “economic internals” when writing about a stock, and that those metrics are derived from economic data as opposed to the accounting data reported by companies each quarter and are regurgitated by the financial media.